Below is a collection of my research papers. Special recognition should go to my student/mentee collaborators (denoted by this symbol ), as they are often the primary contributors to the work.

In case this publication list is not up-to-date, my google scholar page likely contains more recent papers.

Unpublished

Predictive variational inference: Learn the predictively optimal posterior distribution. arXiv:2410.14843.
Jinlin Lai, Yuling Yao^*.
pdf

Adaptive path sampling in metastable posterior distributions. arXiv:2009.00471.
Yuling Yao, Collin Cademartori, Aki Vehtari, Andrew Gelman.
pdf code

Bayesian workflow. arXiv:2011.01808.
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, Charles C Margossian, Bob Carpenter, Yuling Yao, Lauren Kennedy, Jonah Gabry, Paul-Christian Bürkner, Martin Modrák.
pdf

Making the most of imprecise measurements: Changing patterns of arsenic concentrations in shallow wells of Bangladesh from laboratory and field data. arXiv:2101.06631.
Yuling Yao, Rajib Mozumder, Benjamin Bostick, Brian Mailloux, Charles F Harvey, Andrew Gelman, Alexander van Geen.
pdf

Published

[2024] Inferring flavor mixtures in multijet events. SciPost Physics Core.
Ezequiel Alvarez, Yuling Yao.
pdf

[2024] A cheat sheet for Bayesian prediction. Statistical Science.
Bertrand Clarke, Yuling Yao.
pdf

[2024] Simulation based stacking. AISTATS.
Yuling Yao, Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard, Justin Domke.
pdf

[2017] A Bayesian bird’s eye view of ‘Replications of important results in social psychology’. Royal Society open science.
Maarten Marsman, Felix D Schönbrodt, Richard D Morey, Yuling Yao, Andrew Gelman, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers.
pdf

[2018] Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions. Bayesian Analysis.
Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, Andrew Gelman.
pdf code selected as a Discussion Paper on BA

[2018] Yes, but did it work?: Evaluating variational inference. 35th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML).
Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, Andrew Gelman.
pdf talk

[2019] Limitations of “Limitations of Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation for model selection”. Computational Brain \& Behavior.
Aki Vehtari, Daniel P Simpson, Yuling Yao, Andrew Gelman.
pdf

[2020] Bayesian aggregation. Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online.
Yuling Yao.
pdf

[2024] Pareto smoothed importance sampling. Journal of Machine Learning Research.
Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, Andrew Gelman, Yuling Yao, Jonah Gabry.
pdf

[2020] Holes in Bayesian statistics. Journal of Physics G: Nuclear and Particle Physics.
Andrew Gelman, Yuling Yao.
pdf

[2020] Fallout of lead over Paris from the 2019 Notre-Dame cathedral fire. GeoHealth.
Alexander van Geen, Yuling Yao, Tyler Ellis, Andrew Gelman.
pdf code media coverage

[2022] Stacking for non-mixing Bayesian computations: The curse and blessing of multimodal posteriors. Journal of Machine Learning Research.
Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari, Andrew Gelman.
pdf talk

[2021] Bayesian hierarchical stacking: Some models are (somewhere) useful. Bayesian Analysis.
Yuling Yao, Gregor Pirš, Aki Vehtari, Andrew Gelman.
pdf talk

[2022] Economic growth and happiness in China: A Bayesian multilevel age-period-cohort analysis based on the CGSS data 2005–2015. International Review of Economics \& Finance.
Yu-Sung Su, Donald Lien, Yuling Yao.
pdf

[2021] Assessment of excess mortality and household income in rural Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. JAMA network open.
Prabhat Barnwal, Yuling Yao^*, Yiqian Wang, Nishat Akter Juy, Shabib Raihan, Mohammad Ashraful Haque, Alexander van Geen.
pdf media coverage

[2023] Variational inference with Gaussian score matching. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems.
Chirag Modi, Robert Gower, Charles Margossian, Yuling Yao, David Blei, Lawrence Saul.
pdf

[2023] Discriminative calibration: check Bayesian computation from simulations and flexible classifier. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems.
Yuling Yao, Justin Domke.
pdf

[2021] Make cross-validation Bayes again. NeurIPS Workshop.
Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari.
pdf

[2022] Locking and Quacking: Stacking Bayesian model predictions by log-pooling and superposition. NeurIPS Workshop.
Yuling Yao, Luiz Max Carvalho, Diego Mesquita.
pdf

[2024] Galaxy clustering analysis with SimBIG and the wavelet scattering transform. Physical Review D.
Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard, ChangHoon Hahn, Shirley Ho, Jiamin Hou, Pablo Lemos, Elena Massara, Chirag Modi, Azadeh Moradinezhad Dizgah, Liam Parker, Yuling Yao, Michael Eickenberg.
pdf

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